From Interesting Times to Strategic Action: What Canada's Business Climate Is Really Telling You
"May you live in interesting times," goes the ancient Chinese curse. What do you think: is today's business climate interesting enough for you?
For about 20% of Canadian businesses, it's a bit too interesting: they say they don't think they'll survive if the tariff situation doesn't change.¹ In that same survey, two more numbers are worth pausing on:
2 in 5 companies are experiencing supply chain disruptions
Over one third have paused investments — which creates a negative knock-on effect across many other businesses
While this data is from August 2025, it's safe to say the tariff situation has not improved. The times are still interesting. Perhaps more so, given who is in the White House. At 3 a.m. tonight, a social media post could make things considerably more interesting. You never know.
And how did we get here? You know the answer. Our greatest strength - a free trade relationship with the world's largest economy - has become our greatest liability. You've heard Mark Carney say it himself.
So why not simply pivot to the Canadian market?
Because if the present wasn't interesting enough, the future is shaping up to be more so:
The Bank of Canada is projecting GDP growth of just 1% for 2026, and has flagged it could revise that downward if new trade barriers emerge
If the CUSMA review goes badly (and judging by current rhetoric, it's trending in that direction) expect further disruption
As Canada opens new trade corridors, expect new foreign competitors to follow those same corridors into Canadian markets. The CBC reported on June 26th that Danish home goods retailer Flying Tiger is moving into Canada. First mover advantage works both ways.
I could go on, but I'm starting to depress myself. The one consolation: your company is not alone. Misery loves company — time to dust off that saying too.
Now, you may be thinking: Come on, have some faith! These are Canadian companies! We've been through tough times before. With vision, purpose and focus, we can pivot - with alacrity, vim, and vigour!
Well… the Canadian business mindset is, to put it plainly, conservative and risk-averse. I know. Truth is sometimes sharp and bitter.
Anecdotally, when I was working stateside, I noticed a consistent difference between Canadian and American business leaders. I tested this observation with many colleagues who had experience in both countries. Every single one agreed with the following:
"When it comes to investing in a potential business opportunity, the Canadian is afraid of losing their money. The American is afraid of losing the opportunity."
But don't take just my word for it. BDO recently published a report² benchmarking "fear of failure" sentiment across Canada, the U.S., and the OECD:
OECD average: 44%
United States: 45%
Canada: 55%!
Canada has been called out for its risk-averse business culture, and that reputation is well-earned on the global stage.
So, back to the earlier question. Why not pivot? The answer, sadly, appears to be: because we're Canadian. Too often, hope is our strategy.
So, now what?
To recap: a challenging business environment, more economic headwinds on the way, and a cultural tendency toward caution and fear.
But all is not lost. The real question — and only you can answer it — is this:
Are you part of the 55% who will accept that sitting there biting your nails, hoping things improve, is a strategy? Or are you part of the 45% who recognizes that hope is not leadership, and is ready to act?
If you're in the second group, there are real, positive opportunities emerging that you can act on. We'll cover those in the next post.
References:
Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), survey of 1,721 small business owners, reported August 2025.
BDO Canada, Canada's Productivity Paradox, February 2025
Other related sources:
Hashtag Investing / Bank of Canada warning, June 2026
Hays Canada 2026 Salary & Hiring Trends Guide
Vistage / Entrepreneur, January 2026