The Trade War Didn't Break Them. Here's Why.
image credit: www.nj.com/olympics/2010/02/canada_delivers_bold_statement.html
In our last blog, I wrote that a trade tariff near-catastrophe might have been narrowly averted, but that in the following days or weeks, there would arise new trade insecurities. Right after writing that, I was proven both wrong and right.
Wrong, because the trade war was not averted. And right, since negotiations broke down trade insecurities immediately followed.
I also called it a near catastrophe, and doing the research for this blog, I discovered that for a surprising number of Canadian companies and entire industry sectors, catastrophe was not the word they would have chosen.
For some, the announcement that trade negotiations had collapsed produced little more than a shrug. For others, it confirmed that the path of decoupling from their biggest trading partner was the right move and they should double down. And for others still, it was a spark. A trigger to pivot, and an opportunity to grow their market somewhere new.
This is worth sitting with for a moment.
Both Sides of the Border Are Pivoting
This is not only a Canadian story. Companies on both sides are moving away from suppliers and customers across the border. American companies are refocusing on their domestic market, and with 340 million people, that is a large enough pond to swim in.
Canadian companies, however, appear to be the more optimistic ones. Their potential market of almost eight billion people outside the United States, dwarfs what they're walking away from. The constraint was never the opportunity; it was the willingness to go after it.
How the Most Affected Industries Are Responding
Let's look at the sectors hit hardest by tariffs in Canada, and how they're actually faring, based on multiple recent reports:
Aluminum: This industry had already significantly diversified its market well before the latest round of tariffs. Any tariff reductions that come through will be welcome, but they won't make much of a difference either way. The work was already done well ahead of time.
Steel: Heavily pivoted to serve local demand already. While still in the early stages, tariff reductions would not have had the market impact they might otherwise have had even a few months ago. The industry moved before it was forced to.
Softwood Lumber: New trade corridors have been building and the industry can tolerate a certain level of disruption. Although the industry says that tariff relief would help, the groundwork for diversification has been laid. The sector is navigating with more confidence than the headlines suggest.
Automotive: Still somewhat deer-in-the-headlights. This is the sector where hopes and prayers remain most visible. Heavily integrated cross-border supply chains make pivoting genuinely difficult, and the uncertainty for this industry is significant.
Three Companies That Built Their Blueprint and Executed It
For the most compelling individual company stories, follow the links below and read the firsthand accounts for yourself. But here are three that stood out:
Hummingbird Chocolate Maker — Almonte, Ontario
A small artisan chocolate company that made a proactive decision to pivot its customer base away from the U.S. market before they were forced to. Rather than waiting for clarity that never came, they chose a direction and moved. (CTV News, August 2026) https://youtu.be/Z3UAQxM5HOY?si=L95NbZU9qSG29Oyd
Chapman's Ice Cream — Markdale, Ontario
A family-owned company that began replacing U.S. suppliers the moment the first round of tariffs was announced in March 2025, and committed publicly at that moment to hold prices while the transition happened. They are on track to replace more than 70% of their American ingredients with Canadian or non-U.S. sources by mid-2027, with no price increases until March 2028. When no Canadian supplier existed, they looked further: almonds now come from Australia (at a better price than their former U.S. suppliers!), and cherries from Chile. CEO Ashley Chapman put it simply: "We have not been sitting idle. We have been working very hard." (CBC News, August 2026) https://share.google/5IJRxpzON3BQ2uC2o
Farmer's Son Co. — Winnipeg, Manitoba
A candle and home goods company that went cold turkey, dropping U.S. suppliers and stopping U.S. shipments entirely after the first tariff round in March 2025. Co-owner Dan Mitchell's reasoning was straightforward: "If it means finding new partners, finding different vessels to pour candles in, finding ways to just protect our business so that we can continue onwards, that's the smartest move for us." Today, they are navigating the latest tariff storm largely unscathed because the hard work was already behind them. (CBC News, August 2026) https://youtu.be/QhSsPHV3Mr8?si=nRUab9uUS848Evz8
The common thread? None of them waited. Each made a leadership decision, built a plan, and executed against it while others were still hoping the situation would resolve itself.
What About You? Let’s Look at Your Own Blueprint
If you have followed the suggestions in our last few blogs, you now have your blueprint. Pull it out and look at it again.
Do any of these examples above prompt you to adjust it? Add to it? Accelerate something you've been moving too slowly on?
If you're already well on your way, executing your plan with a focused, aligned leadership team, good. Keep going.
If you're fortunate enough to be largely insulated from these particular trade shocks, good. But still ask yourself whether the next disruption, whatever that might be for your company or your industry, might find you less nimble.
And if you're frozen, not quite sure how to proceed, unsure where to start? Here is a simple, low-commitment next step: sign up for our newsletter. Every week we provide brief specific, actionable things you can do to move your business forward. It is designed to be brief, thought-and-action provoking, and we’re sure you'll love it and find it useful.
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